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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-16
The top ranked Ohio State Buckeyes face their biggest test of the season Saturday night when they travel to Wisconsin to take on the 18th ranked Badgers. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have the Buckeyes as 4-point favorites with the ‘total’ holding steady at 49 points.
Terrelle Pryor threw for a career-best 334 yards in last week’s 38-10 win over Indiana. The Badgers also got a big performance out of their star player as RB John Clay rushed for 111 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Minnesota. Clay’s running mate James White also came up big with 118 rushing yards and two scores. The duo will be challenged against OSU’s 4th-ranked run defense (79 YPG) .
Now that Terrelle Pryor showed the country that he is fully healthy, he needs to step up his game against the Badgers. Despite winning his two career meetings with Wisconsin, Pryor has had sub-par games both times, combining for 231 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT and just 55 rushing yards on 25 carries. Luckily for Pryor, he has a great supporting cast with Dan Herron (355 rush yds, 7 TD) and WRs Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey who are combining for nine receptions per game. OSU is outscoring its opponents by an average of 43 to 14 this year.
By the way, Sportsbook.com has Pryor as the +250 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien was much worse than Pryor in last year’s meeting, a 31-13 OSU win. Since the Badgers were trailing by so many points, Tolzien was forced to throw 45 times and finished with 0 TD and 2 INT. Clay will need to have a big game for the Badgers to come out victorious, but he was stuffed in last year’s loss, gaining just 59 yards on 20 carries. The Wisconsin defense also has its issues after allowing 57 points to its two Big Ten opponents this year (Michigan State and Minnesota).
After scanning Sportsbook.com college football betting trends, an overwhelming 87% of the early bettors are backing the Buckeyes. After reading the following betting trend it is easy to see why:
OHIO ST is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 35.0, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 5*).
When these two Big 10 foes meet, the defenses usually are on top of their games. As a matter of fact, the last seven times they squared off, the ‘under’ covered.
To bet on the Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game or to check out this weekend’s college football betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com.
NFL: AFC North Preview 2010
2010-08-19
Out of all the conferences I’ve looked at, the AFC North is the only conference that only has one team that’s the weak link in the conference. This should be good news for your football betting needs. If football betting is your thing, then you are probably going to be pretty successful in the AFC North. For football betting, you can count the Cleveland Browns out. They are the AFC North’s weak link. However, the other three teams in the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, will surely pull their own weight coming up this 2010 season.
Let’s start with the weak link of the conference, the Cleveland Browns. Amazingly enough, the Cleveland Browns didn’t do too badly in 2009, as they went 5-11, which is honestly better than I expected. If you were to look at the Cleveland Browns’ 2009 results, you would perceive one thing: the Browns lost early and gout used to losing. In fact, the Cleveland Browns lost the first four games of the season. Then they decided to get their act together in week six against the Buffalo Bills, squeaking past the Buffalo Bills 6-3. But apparently the Cleveland Browns didn’t enjoy being the top team when ESPN would do their game recaps because the Cleveland Browns proceeded to lose the next seven games. After a seven game losing streak, it appears that the Cleveland Browns got tired of losing, because they finished their season with four straight wins, starting with a surprising 13-6 win over quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Apart from the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Cleveland Browns’ wins weren’t impressive, as they beat the Kansas City Chiefs 41-34 in week 15, the Oakland Raiders 23-9 in week 16, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17 in the final week of the 2009 season, week 17. www.sportsbook.com has the Browns as the long shots in this division; with their line at +2000 this could be the bet of the season. Get in early while the line is still strong and the payday could be huge.
It appears that a lack of quarterback stability was probably the root cause for the Cleveland Browns’ depressing 5-11 season. Quarterbacks Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson each played eight games throughout the season, which didn’t give the offense time to get accustomed with a quarterback because they were changing. I mean, Brady Quinn played the first two games of the season, then Derek Anderson played the next six, then Brady Quinn played the next six games, and then Derek Anderson finished up the season by playing the last two games. The Cleveland Browns should have stuck with one quarterback for the entire season, and only put in the second string quarterback when the starter is injured. Staying with one quarterback gives the wide receivers, offensive linemen, running backs, tight ends and everyone else the chance to build a relationship and build trust within each other. However, the Cleveland Browns toyed with the team’s chemistry and it was not good.
On the contrary, maybe some good will come out of this. Since Derek Anderson was the starter, and Brady Quinn played eight games, playing those eight games gave Brady Quinn an immense and invaluable amount of experience. It’s good to have your players, especially quarterbacks, be able to effectively run the offense when they’re needed, so perhaps giving eight games to each of the quarterbacks was not such a bad idea.
Unfortunately for the Cleveland Browns, they’re in a very talented conference, which includes the team that put a 19 point smackdown on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the Wild Card game in 2008, the Baltimore Ravens. Also, the Cleveland Browns have an extremely difficult three game stretch starting in week seven: the Browns play the New Orleans Saints on October 24, the New England Patriots on November 7, and the New York Jets on November 14. Luckily for the Browns, the games against the Patriots and the Jets are both home games, so that will probably even the scales in the Cleveland Browns’ favor.
So, for your football betting adventures, you can pretty much rule out the Cleveland Browns again in 2010. I think their unwillingness to stick to one quarterback throught the season is what will bring about their downfall. Once again, look for the Cleveland Browns to be the bottom dwellers of the AFC North yet again come 2010.
NFL: Sunday Early NFL Kickoffs (1:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2010-01-04
Only three of Sunday’s NFL early kickoffs figure to have any bearing on the postseason picture, and even still, nothing will be decided yet regardless of the outcome of those games. Let’s take a quick look at those three games from a betting perspective, then head on over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook to see the latest prices, then the BETTING TRENDS page to see where your fellow bettors are entrusting their bankroll to.
(311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) HOUSTON
With the AFC East title in hand, New England looks to secure the #3 seed for the AFC playoffs. The Patriots advanced to 10-5 with their win over Jacksonville, but face the challenge of a Houston team still hopeful for a wildcard spot itself. New England also needs to prove it can play better on the road, as HC Bill Belichick’s team is just 2-5 SU & 2-4-1 ATS away from home in ’09. However, in Belichick’s tenure, they boast an incredible 18-5 ATS record vs. prolific passing teams gaining >=260 YPG. The Texans are potent on offense, particularly late in the season at home. They have won eight straight post-Thanksgiving weekend games as hosts, scoring 27.5 PPG. HC Gary Kubiak’s team is looking for its first ever win vs. the Pats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS).
(313) PITTSBURGH at (314) MIAMI
Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore kept its slim playoff hopes alive. At 8-7, the Steelers need a win at Miami and some help to get in. At 7-8, the Dolphins need even more help in order to secure a second straight postseason spot. Winning is something the Dolphins have had trouble with in recent years when it comes to Pittsburgh, just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in the L8 h2h meetings. However, with the Steelers gaining a lofty 6.2 yards per play, it should be noted that Miami is 8-1 ATS vs. teams gaining >=5.65 YPP under Tony Sparano. Pittsburgh hasn’t done much well for bettors this year, including 2-5 SU & ATS on the road. The last time these teams met was the quagmire in Pittsburgh in ’07, a 3-0 Steelers win, the UNDER going 5-1-1 ATS in the L7 h2h showdowns.
(315) NY GIANTS at (316) MINNESOTA
The Vikings are playing for a first round bye in the NFC playoffs when they host the Giants. They are facing a New York team whose own postseason desires were blown up in a humiliating home loss to Carolina. Recent series history is on the side of the Giants, as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their L4 visits to the Metrodome, and the visiting team has covered six straight overall. The Giants haven’t played well on the road this season as they normally have under Tom Coughlin, having lost three of their L4 away games by 20 points or more. They are also just 1-7 ATS in ’09 vs. teams with a winning record. Minnesota has endured its own internal problems of late and had has gone under the total in six of its L7 games.
NFL: BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2009-01-09
Strangely, all four divisional round playoff games are rematches from regular season battles. Baltimore and Tennessee kick off the festivities Saturday afternoon. The Titans, a 3-point favorite, won the week 5 matchup between these teams in Baltimore, 13-10. It was the 5th meeting in the last six that was decided by 6 points or less. Additionally, five of those six games went UNDER the total. Combined, these teams are 25-7 ATS in ’08-09, so something has to give. HC Jeff Fisher’s team, the AFC’s #1 seed, was 7-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring foes by 8.4 PPG. Baltimore was a solid 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road. Tennessee comes in on a run of 17-3 SU & 16-3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Ravens are on a 6-3 SU & ATS postseason run.
While top-seeded Tennessee was enjoying a week off, No. 6 Baltimore was busy beating up on Miami and likely loving every second of it. The Ravens defense squeezed five turnovers out of a Dolphins team that had the fewest turnovers ever (13) in a 16-game NFL season and walked away with their first playoff road win since 2001, 27-9. Chad Pennington’s Comeback Player of the Year campaign ended with a dreadful showing in the Wild-Card round (four interceptions), as he and the Dolphins managed just 276 total yards against the NFL’s No. 2-ranked defense.
To keep the playoff run going, Baltimore faces one of its biggest rivals in the Titans, who handed the Ravens a 13-10 loss in Week 5. Baltimore pounded out 132 yards rushing in defeat, but a personal foul on Terrell Suggs, one of the team’s 10 penalties for 78 yards, kept Tennessee’s late fourth-quarter, game-winning drive alive.
The Ravens and Titans are near identical in philosophy, but in terms of how they’re hitting the field couldn’t be any different. The Titans benefited from the bye as both defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (knee) are expected to be in the lineup. But Tennessee needs to reverse a late-season slump that included three losses in the final six games. Baltimore, on the other hand, couldn’t be any hotter, winning six of its last seven games.
Building on the strong finish in a Week 17 win over Jacksonville (297 yards passing), Joe Flacco became the first rookie quarterback to win a playoff game since 2004 and only the third since 1960. Though he completed just 9 of 23 passes in Miami, Flacco didn’t fall victim to the turnover bug, something that’s plagued the Titans’ Kerry Collins (179 interceptions, 50 lost fumbles in 178 games).
Unlike Flacco, who’s progressed from driving a beat-up Honda to a smooth Cadillac in Baltimore, Collins has been stuck in neutral with just three touchdown passes in the last six games. Moving forward, why would the Titans expose the turnover-prone Collins against Ed Reed—NFL-high nine interceptions—and the rest of a defense that’s forced 39 turnovers in 17 games? In Week 5, Collins completed just 17 of 32 passes for 163 yards with a touchdown and two picks.
PREDICTION: It’s not often a rookie quarterback has the upper hand over a 14-year veteran with Super Bowl experience. But that’s the case in Tennessee, where the Titans vanilla approach will be their ultimate downfall. The Ravens, backed by a punishing ground attack and defense, topple their archrival and remain the team no one wants to face. BALTIMORE 24, TENNESSEE 17
NFL - Miami at Pittsburgh (8:35 PM – ESPN)
2007-11-23
Last week’s game against the Jets was supposed to be the start of the easiest three-game stretch on Pittsburgh’s schedule this season. Instead, the Steelers dropped a heartbreaker, losing ground to both Cleveland and Indianapolis in the playoff hunt. This week’s Monday night contest figures to be a layup against Miami, as the Dolphins remain winless in 2007.
Pittsburgh is a 16-point favorite and will be putting to test a 12-2 ATS trend when playing on MNF. HC Mike Tomlin’s team has been dominant at home, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by a 30.2-10.8 margin. The Steelers are also 17-3 OVER in their last 20 games as home chalk. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its L6 games as a double-digit dog. In the series, Pitt is 5-2 SU & ATS in the L7 h2h meetings.
The Dolphins deserve full praise as the worst team in the game and are starting to approach a level worthy of rank as one of the worst ever. The push towards youth has taken full effect, leaving many to wonder when veteran commodities like DE Jason Taylor and LB Zach Thomas will be jettisoned. There is little left to say: No hope on offense without a healthy Ronnie Brown, a defense rendered useless by unproven commodities and a severe lack of rest, and a coaching staff unable to garner any level of consistency has left Miami with far too many questions void of answers.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is earning praise as a viable MVP candidate, working with the precision and intelligence of a seasoned veteran. He is manned with a supporting cast any passer would envy, including an offensive line that dominates, receivers capable of fulfilling any and all needs, and a rushing attack that will test the best defensive units on the planet. Add a defensive roster ranked as the best in the land and it’s undeniable: The Steelers are a top NFL threat.
Keys to the Game – Miami’s 10-2 ATS mark as underdogs of more than six points will get a test in the Steel City. Coach Cam Cameron has that confused look and must be giving out the game plans in haplologies since something is always missing. Pittsburgh is gearing up for big New England game in a couple of weeks. This game is about doing the simple things for the Steelers, place unrelenting pressure on Fins’ quarterback and demoralize them with RB Willie Parker. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS as a MNF favorite.
Trends
Miami is 2-13 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more rushing yards per game.
Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS playing on Monday night.
StatFox Pick – Steelers minus points