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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-16
The top ranked Ohio State Buckeyes face their biggest test of the season Saturday night when they travel to Wisconsin to take on the 18th ranked Badgers. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have the Buckeyes as 4-point favorites with the ‘total’ holding steady at 49 points.
Terrelle Pryor threw for a career-best 334 yards in last week’s 38-10 win over Indiana. The Badgers also got a big performance out of their star player as RB John Clay rushed for 111 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Minnesota. Clay’s running mate James White also came up big with 118 rushing yards and two scores. The duo will be challenged against OSU’s 4th-ranked run defense (79 YPG) .
Now that Terrelle Pryor showed the country that he is fully healthy, he needs to step up his game against the Badgers. Despite winning his two career meetings with Wisconsin, Pryor has had sub-par games both times, combining for 231 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT and just 55 rushing yards on 25 carries. Luckily for Pryor, he has a great supporting cast with Dan Herron (355 rush yds, 7 TD) and WRs Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey who are combining for nine receptions per game. OSU is outscoring its opponents by an average of 43 to 14 this year.
By the way, Sportsbook.com has Pryor as the +250 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien was much worse than Pryor in last year’s meeting, a 31-13 OSU win. Since the Badgers were trailing by so many points, Tolzien was forced to throw 45 times and finished with 0 TD and 2 INT. Clay will need to have a big game for the Badgers to come out victorious, but he was stuffed in last year’s loss, gaining just 59 yards on 20 carries. The Wisconsin defense also has its issues after allowing 57 points to its two Big Ten opponents this year (Michigan State and Minnesota).
After scanning Sportsbook.com college football betting trends, an overwhelming 87% of the early bettors are backing the Buckeyes. After reading the following betting trend it is easy to see why:
OHIO ST is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 35.0, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 5*).
When these two Big 10 foes meet, the defenses usually are on top of their games. As a matter of fact, the last seven times they squared off, the ‘under’ covered.
To bet on the Ohio State vs. Wisconsin game or to check out this weekend’s college football betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com.
NFL: Sunday Early NFL Kickoffs (1:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2010-01-04
Only three of Sunday’s NFL early kickoffs figure to have any bearing on the postseason picture, and even still, nothing will be decided yet regardless of the outcome of those games. Let’s take a quick look at those three games from a betting perspective, then head on over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook to see the latest prices, then the BETTING TRENDS page to see where your fellow bettors are entrusting their bankroll to.
(311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) HOUSTON
With the AFC East title in hand, New England looks to secure the #3 seed for the AFC playoffs. The Patriots advanced to 10-5 with their win over Jacksonville, but face the challenge of a Houston team still hopeful for a wildcard spot itself. New England also needs to prove it can play better on the road, as HC Bill Belichick’s team is just 2-5 SU & 2-4-1 ATS away from home in ’09. However, in Belichick’s tenure, they boast an incredible 18-5 ATS record vs. prolific passing teams gaining >=260 YPG. The Texans are potent on offense, particularly late in the season at home. They have won eight straight post-Thanksgiving weekend games as hosts, scoring 27.5 PPG. HC Gary Kubiak’s team is looking for its first ever win vs. the Pats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS).
(313) PITTSBURGH at (314) MIAMI
Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore kept its slim playoff hopes alive. At 8-7, the Steelers need a win at Miami and some help to get in. At 7-8, the Dolphins need even more help in order to secure a second straight postseason spot. Winning is something the Dolphins have had trouble with in recent years when it comes to Pittsburgh, just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in the L8 h2h meetings. However, with the Steelers gaining a lofty 6.2 yards per play, it should be noted that Miami is 8-1 ATS vs. teams gaining >=5.65 YPP under Tony Sparano. Pittsburgh hasn’t done much well for bettors this year, including 2-5 SU & ATS on the road. The last time these teams met was the quagmire in Pittsburgh in ’07, a 3-0 Steelers win, the UNDER going 5-1-1 ATS in the L7 h2h showdowns.
(315) NY GIANTS at (316) MINNESOTA
The Vikings are playing for a first round bye in the NFC playoffs when they host the Giants. They are facing a New York team whose own postseason desires were blown up in a humiliating home loss to Carolina. Recent series history is on the side of the Giants, as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their L4 visits to the Metrodome, and the visiting team has covered six straight overall. The Giants haven’t played well on the road this season as they normally have under Tom Coughlin, having lost three of their L4 away games by 20 points or more. They are also just 1-7 ATS in ’09 vs. teams with a winning record. Minnesota has endured its own internal problems of late and had has gone under the total in six of its L7 games.
NFL: BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2009-01-09
Strangely, all four divisional round playoff games are rematches from regular season battles. Baltimore and Tennessee kick off the festivities Saturday afternoon. The Titans, a 3-point favorite, won the week 5 matchup between these teams in Baltimore, 13-10. It was the 5th meeting in the last six that was decided by 6 points or less. Additionally, five of those six games went UNDER the total. Combined, these teams are 25-7 ATS in ’08-09, so something has to give. HC Jeff Fisher’s team, the AFC’s #1 seed, was 7-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring foes by 8.4 PPG. Baltimore was a solid 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road. Tennessee comes in on a run of 17-3 SU & 16-3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Ravens are on a 6-3 SU & ATS postseason run.
While top-seeded Tennessee was enjoying a week off, No. 6 Baltimore was busy beating up on Miami and likely loving every second of it. The Ravens defense squeezed five turnovers out of a Dolphins team that had the fewest turnovers ever (13) in a 16-game NFL season and walked away with their first playoff road win since 2001, 27-9. Chad Pennington’s Comeback Player of the Year campaign ended with a dreadful showing in the Wild-Card round (four interceptions), as he and the Dolphins managed just 276 total yards against the NFL’s No. 2-ranked defense.
To keep the playoff run going, Baltimore faces one of its biggest rivals in the Titans, who handed the Ravens a 13-10 loss in Week 5. Baltimore pounded out 132 yards rushing in defeat, but a personal foul on Terrell Suggs, one of the team’s 10 penalties for 78 yards, kept Tennessee’s late fourth-quarter, game-winning drive alive.
The Ravens and Titans are near identical in philosophy, but in terms of how they’re hitting the field couldn’t be any different. The Titans benefited from the bye as both defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (knee) are expected to be in the lineup. But Tennessee needs to reverse a late-season slump that included three losses in the final six games. Baltimore, on the other hand, couldn’t be any hotter, winning six of its last seven games.
Building on the strong finish in a Week 17 win over Jacksonville (297 yards passing), Joe Flacco became the first rookie quarterback to win a playoff game since 2004 and only the third since 1960. Though he completed just 9 of 23 passes in Miami, Flacco didn’t fall victim to the turnover bug, something that’s plagued the Titans’ Kerry Collins (179 interceptions, 50 lost fumbles in 178 games).
Unlike Flacco, who’s progressed from driving a beat-up Honda to a smooth Cadillac in Baltimore, Collins has been stuck in neutral with just three touchdown passes in the last six games. Moving forward, why would the Titans expose the turnover-prone Collins against Ed Reed—NFL-high nine interceptions—and the rest of a defense that’s forced 39 turnovers in 17 games? In Week 5, Collins completed just 17 of 32 passes for 163 yards with a touchdown and two picks.
PREDICTION: It’s not often a rookie quarterback has the upper hand over a 14-year veteran with Super Bowl experience. But that’s the case in Tennessee, where the Titans vanilla approach will be their ultimate downfall. The Ravens, backed by a punishing ground attack and defense, topple their archrival and remain the team no one wants to face. BALTIMORE 24, TENNESSEE 17
NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-04
The NFL late afternoon kickoffs of Sunday offer four different games with numerous wagering opportunities. In Denver, the Broncos host Miami. In Oakland, the Raiders try to turn back the Falcons. The Giants host Dallas, and Seattle welcomes Philly to town. There are plenty of betting angles to consider when looking at each of these contests. Take a look.
(415) MIAMI at (416) DENVER
Since its season-opening win at Oakland, Denver has dropped six straight games against the spread. Strangely, the Broncos, who at 4-3 are being outscored by 3.2 PPG, still find themselves comfortably in control of the horrid AFC West Division. This past Sunday they enjoyed their bye week for ’08. If history is any indication, you can feel for this week’s opponent, Miami, and expect that ATS-skid to be halted. Denver has been the NFL’s best post-bye week team, going 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS since ’92. This includes a current 5-game winning streak. However, the Broncos have struggled against Miami for some reason, going just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in the L7 head-to-head meetings. The Dolphins come in off a big home upset of Buffalo, which moved their record to 3-4.
(417) ATLANTA at (418) OAKLAND
Atlanta hasn’t won in Oakland since prior to ’92. That fact doesn’t have much to do with their current road struggles, but it’s just another hurdle for the young Falcons to overcome this Sunday when they take on the Raiders. If trends are any indication, Oakland won’t put up much resistance, as Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its L9 games vs. the AFC, 3-11 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games, and 8-20 ATS as a home dog. The Raiders offense has been struggling horribly, scoring just 47 points over the last four games. The most recent setback was a 29-10 loss at Baltimore this past Sunday. The Falcons, 4-3 after the 27-14 loss in Philly, are just 1-6 SU & ATS in their L7 games on the road dating back to last season, scoring 15 PPG in the process.
(419) DALLAS at (420) NY GIANTS
The NFC East teams swept their four games last Sunday, again stating the case that this is the best division in the NFL. The Cowboys’ win against Tampa Bay was both dramatic and desperate as it snapped their three-game losing skid. The Giants win was more impressive, coming on the road at a place few NFC teams survive, Pittsburgh. Now, with two games separating all four teams, each above .500, Dallas and New York meet in what could be a must-win for the Cowboys. Unfortunately, expected to be without Tony Romo once again, and playing as a 7-point dog, the odds are against HC Wade Phillips’ team. The Giants are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 15.5 PPG. They are also 15-3 ATS in their L18 games vs. good offensive teams averaging > 350 YPG.
(421) PHILADELPHIA at (422) SEATTLE
The road team in the Philadelphia-Seattle head-to-head series has won and covered the last five games, with three of them being decided by 24 points or more. As touchdown favorites, the Eagles will look to extend that streak to six games and stay in the hunt in the NFC East standings. HC Andy Reid’s team will need to avoid looking ahead to next Sunday’s showdown with the Giants in Philadelphia. There hasn’t been a major focus problem for Reid’s teams on the road, as they are 50-28 ATS in his tenure, including 24-10 SU & 19-14 ATS as road chalk. Reid’s mentor Mike Holmgren, will be on the other sideline trying to break a trend of 9-19 ATS against good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA. His Seattle teams are just 5-11 SU & 7-9 ATS as home underdogs.
NFL: 2008 Indianapolis Colts Preview
2008-07-29
Even off of last year’s stunning playoff loss to San Diego, plenty of excitement abounds the Colts facilities this season. The opening of Lucas Oil Stadium has the town buzzing and Indianapolis did not suffer many casualties to free agency. It’s no surprise that Sportsbook.com has the season win total prop for the Colts set at Over/Under 11.
The Colts ended up allowing the fewest points in the league (16.4 PPG), but the omnipresent pass rush was curtailed when Dwight Freeney went down. The return to health of Freeney and others should have the Colts back on course.
With Peyton Manning, the “other Manning” these days, he’s been freed to work on improving himself and showing the patience he occasionally lacked last season. This situation took a bit of a U-turn when Manning had to have what essentially was emergency surgery on his knee, due to infection, which had suddenly caused him pain in early July. While playing in one of the Colts' final two preseason games remains a possibility, Manning's primary goal is to be fully prepared for the Sept. 7 season and home opener against the Chicago Bears.
Marvin Harrison has looked good thus far in camp, with no noticeable limp and the more familiar explosiveness Colts fans are used to. Manning learned to play without Harrison the second half of the season and no longer needs him as security blanket. Peyton still led an offense that was third in points scored (28.1), fifth in total offense (358.7 YPG) and number one in third down conversion at 49.3 percent. It’s hard to find much fault, as long as Bill Polian and Tony Dungy are in charge.
There is a very good reason why Indianapolis has been as good as they have without a decline. GM Bill Polian and head coach Tony Dungy live in the present, always thinking about the future. The Colts lost G Jake Scott and back-up TE Ben Utecht, yet was able to keep every other player they needed. The offense line, though still strong, was given full attention, with three picks used. Arizona State’s Mike Pollack was chosen first and Remington runner-up, C Steve Justice was chosen in sixth round. Pollack is already showing promise, sharing playing time early in camp with vet Charlie Johnson at right guard for the departed Scott. The Colts M.O. has been to choose versatile linemen who can play more than one position and ultimately excel at one, once they find their niche. Tough Mike Hart of Michigan will compete for carries behind Joe Addai and bring winning attitude to the club. Adding outside linebackers Marcus Howard and Philip Wheeler means more speed from players that look like a good fit for Dungy’s defensive system. The beat goes on in Indy.
2008 Outlook- The expression, “luck is a residue of design” embarks what Indianapolis Colts are all about. GM Polian has carefully crafted a roster in harmony to his and coach Dungy’s preferences. Though the Colts are heavily wagered upon, they have still managed to be 15-10-1 ATS on the road the last three years. Indianapolis has the NFL’s second toughest schedule, yet nothing to fret; they just keep putting up “W’s” and head off all challengers. The Colts at 4-1, is quality wager to win the AFC. Even with the teams in the division improving and rugged slate of games, you either bet Indianapolis to go Over 11 wins at Sportsbook.com or pass.